Thursday, November 29, 2012

Preliminary Winter Forecast.

*NOTE* THIS PAGE APPEARS TO OF BEEN MADE ON NOVEMBER 29, 2012, BUT THIS WAS JUST A POSTED CHANGED OVER TO THIS ON THE DATE OF 9/17/13 ON 10:15 EST

     It's certainly a beautiful day here. You can see some of the leaves falling already, and the shades of green fade to a much more calming yellow. You might of noticed that temperatures went from the 80s to the 60s-70s. Everything feels much more comfortable. Now, winter might make an appearance early for yet another year. Now, you're probably wondering where all of this bahoo-y is coming from. Well, here you go.


SUNSPOTS

     There is been a surprisingly sudden decrease in sunspots for a while now. Activity chart
     To clear up all of the confusion, in this picture, the red lines would indicate the number of sunspots. Now, this year was actually supposed to be the solar maximum, or when the cycle for the sunspots hits its peak. Now, that little tiny bump was the peak. Seeing that we are currently getting the lowest sunspots in god knows how long, this will not just affect the U.S, but the globe. Temperatures will most likely be below average, seeing this piece of information.

A NEGATIVE NAO

     A negative NAO can cause temperatures to cool down during the winter. The reason behind the colder temperatures are because the Icelandic Low and the Azores High are weakened, decreasing pressure in the Atlantic. Stratospheric Warming's are more likely.

STRATOSPHERIC WARMING

     I believe we will have stratospheric warming's more frequently and stronger than normal. A Stratospheric warming disables the polar vortex, which is pretty much fuel for the Arctic's air. When SW's and SSW's occur, the polar vortex is weakened. A weakening of the polar vortex usually is followed by a -AO, or vice versa. If the polar vortex is weak enough, it will be displaced. When displaced, it will send an extreme cold shot to the area. Maybe even a semi-permanent cold shot for the winter will occur.

LAST YEAR VS THIS YEAR

    There could be a possibility we might see a similarity to last years winter. Now, we were usually just above the freezing area, making way for a bitterly cold and rainy day. Now, our sunspots are surprisingly lower than last years. We are breaking records, and I believe the sunspots will gradually get lower, or sustain its spot. We might have that little tick of colder air helping us get snow.

OVERALL

     I believe that this year, we will see an above average amount of snowfall. I expect this area to have a few sprinkles of mixing during snowstorms, but I believe for the most part we will experience a winter wonderland. I believe damage chances are a lot higher this year, due to the weakening of trees and houses when Superstorm Sandy literally smashed our faces in. Expect cold shots lasting up to possibly a week forcing temperatures in to the lower 30s and mid-upper 20s.